Polycab India's stock has slipped nearly 10 percent over the past few trading sessions, but brokerage firm Jefferies India is calling the dip a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. Jefferies has retained a BUY rating on Polycab and expects a sharp rally in the stock in the months ahead, arguing that the sell-off has more to do with sentiment than with the company's underlying business.
UltraTech's entry behind the sell-off
The weakness in Polycab's shares followed a major move by UltraTech Cement, the Aditya Birla Group company best known for its cement business. UltraTech announced its entry into the wires and cables segment under a new brand called UltraVolt. News of such a large, cash-rich conglomerate stepping into India's wire and cable market immediately triggered worries among investors that existing players, especially market leader Polycab, could see their market share and margins come under pressure. That fear has been the main driver behind the sustained selling in Polycab's stock over the last few days.
A Rs 1 lakh crore market with room for everyone
Jefferies analysts believe the panic is overdone, pointing out that India's wire and cable industry is already a large and fast-growing market. According to the brokerage's estimates, the industry is worth about Rs 1 lakh crore in FY2026, of which roughly a quarter, or about 25 percent, is still controlled by unorganised, smaller local players. On top of that, the industry is expanding at a double-digit pace of 11 to 12 percent every year. Jefferies argues that when a market is this large and growing this fast, there is enough room for a new entrant like UltraTech without it necessarily coming at the expense of the sector's established leaders.
Polycab's grip on the market stays strong
The brokerage's note points out that Polycab has long been the undisputed number one player in the wire and cable market. The company's market share has climbed steadily from 18 percent in FY2020 to 30-31 percent in FY2026. Its biggest strengths are a nationwide distribution network and a wide portfolio of more than 15,000 products, neither of which can be built overnight by a new entrant. Cables alone make up 70-75 percent of Polycab's total business, while UltraTech's initial push is concentrated mainly on wires and LT cables. That means the direct overlap between the two companies is narrower, at least for now, than it first appeared.
Lower risk than Havells or Finolex
Jefferies also notes that segments such as power transmission and industrial cables typically require a new company to spend two to four years getting its products tested and approved. That long and demanding approval process acts as a kind of protective wall for established players like Polycab. As a result, the brokerage sees Polycab facing lower risk than rivals such as Havells or Finolex, since both of those companies carry a much larger share of wires in their overall business, which is precisely the segment where UltraTech has just begun operating.
Up to 34 percent upside on the table
Based on all these factors, Jefferies India has recommended buying Polycab shares, saying the recent fall of more than 10 percent has opened up a fresh entry point. The brokerage estimates that Polycab's stock could rise about 34 percent from its current level of Rs 8261.00 to around Rs 11,100. In a more favourable scenario, the brokerage says the stock could rally more than 45 percent to touch Rs 12,000, while in a worse-case scenario it could fall around 20 percent to Rs 6,600. On the NSE, Polycab's 52-week high stands at Rs 10,126.00, while its 52-week low is Rs 6,663.00.
