A year has passed since the death of Charlie Kirk, and the conservative grassroots organization Turning Point is planning a massive financial injection for the upcoming midterm elections. The group is expected to prioritize three core states, namely New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada, while also deploying full-time field staff across seven other states where Democrats could potentially capture seats.
While exact figures remain subject to change, sources indicate that Turning Point's super PAC is looking to spend $15 to $20 million on advertising across the three primary battleground states. The exact expenditure for Turning Point's ground operation has not been disclosed since it operates through a 501(c)(4) nonprofit entity, though estimates suggest it could run into tens of millions more.
This planned infusion of cash will fund both ground operations and digital advertising, further bolstering the financial edge that Republicans already hold through a vast network of external super PACs and party committees.
Key Senate and Gubernatorial Battlegrounds
For Republicans, the most closely watched race in New Hampshire is for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, where former Republican senator John Sununu is facing off against Democratic representative Chris Pappas in a bid to flip the seat.
This New Hampshire Senate contest is a critical battleground for both political parties. Many of the potential pathways for Democrats to retain their Senate majority rely on holding this specific seat, which the Cook Political Report currently classifies as Lean Democrat.
Additionally, Turning Point has maintained a sharp focus on the Arizona gubernatorial race, where incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is running against Representative Andy Biggs, who previously endorsed President Donald Trump's claims regarding the 2020 election.
Countering Voter Discontent and Party Strategies
These strategic moves unfold as Republican organizations launch massive financial campaigns to counter voter discontent stemming from the Iran war and high consumer prices, alongside growing Democratic momentum that has raised the possibility of a Democrat-controlled Senate.
Following criticism over earlier delays in spending, Donald Trump’s political apparatus has recently shifted into high gear with a $10 million ad commitment in the Texas Senate race via Trump’s primary super PAC, MAGA Inc. More recently, Trump’s team utilized a newly established entity, No Going Back PAC Inc, to reserve a minimum of $47 million in ads across six Senate races and one House race.
The extent of direct coordination between Trump's operation and MAGA Inc. with external entities like Turning Point remains partially opaque, but an insider noted that extensive data sharing has taken place to align on targeted voter outreach.
Voter Turnout and 2028 Long-Term Planning
With the upcoming November midterms widely anticipated to hinge heavily on voter turnout, Turning Point has conveyed to Trump’s inner circle that a primary focus of its field operation will be ensuring Trump supporters actually cast their ballots on Election Day.
Unlike other traditional super PACs, Turning Point has historically centered its efforts around presidential election cycles, making its midterm strategy a deliberate effort to build foundational infrastructure for the Republican ticket in 2028.
The concentration on New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada stems from the realization within Turning Point that securing victories in those states by 2028 would alleviate the need for Vice President JD Vance or any future nominee to capture traditional blue-wall states.
The Republican Midterm Convention and Internal Dilemmas
As political wisdom dictates that the day after midterms marks the unofficial start of the presidential race, Republicans are already actively campaigning.
Given that Donald Trump's public approval rating has consistently hovered at or below 40 percent—a historically precarious threshold for a midterm election cycle—Republicans face a dilemma regarding participation in this week's Republican midterm convention in Texas.
While party conventions are typically reserved for presidential election years, Trump and other key officials are scheduled to headline the event to energize the conservative base and support vulnerable figures like Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton.
However, appearing alongside the president places candidates in tight races at risk of being closely tied to the political baggage of the Iran war, as well as the surging gas and grocery prices resulting from the conflict.
To partially mitigate these deterrents, the Republican National Committee has placed heavy emphasis on utilizing the convention to facilitate fundraising efforts on behalf of candidates traveling to Dallas.
On September 9, Donald Trump is scheduled to appear at a specially designated RNC event. Participation in a roundtable discussion with Trump carries a price tag of $250,000 per person, while an individual photo opportunity with the president is set at $88,600.
On September 10, JD Vance will host a separate RNC roundtable event, with attendance priced at $75,000 per person and photo opportunities costing $35,000 each, according to invitations sent out to prospective donors. The Wall Street Journal previously reported on these invitations.
These contribution rates are set lower than standard rates, a move seemingly designed to attract a larger volume of donors and maximize overall fundraising totals. By comparison, securing face-to-face access with Trump at a standard MAGA Inc. fundraising event typically requires a $1 million contribution per seat.
