Weather conditions across Rajasthan are gearing up for a significant shift as the month of September unfolds. Over the past few days, rainfall activity had slowed down considerably across the state, bringing back a spell of humidity and warmth. According to meteorological data, weather across most parts of the state on September 1 is expected to remain largely dry. However, isolated spells of rain might occur in a few places across the Bharatpur and Udaipur divisions in eastern Rajasthan. No specific heavy or very heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for any district during this initial phase. Temperature records show that Sri Ganganagar registered the highest temperature in the state at 38.7 degrees Celsius, while average humidity levels hovered between 30 and 70 percent.
Impact of the Bay of Bengal System
According to weather forecasters, a well-marked low-pressure area has formed over the northwestern parts of the Bay of Bengal alongside the adjacent coasts of West Bengal and Odisha. Combined with shifting patterns in the monsoon trough, these meteorological developments indicate that rainfall activities are poised to resume and intensify across Rajasthan starting around September 2 and 3.
Rainfall Expected on September 2 and 3
The meteorological center in Jaipur reports that a fresh spell of rain could commence in parts of the Bharatpur and Jaipur divisions starting September 2. Localized cloud formation and patchy rainfall are expected to trigger in eastern Rajasthan from September 2 onward. Subsequently, by September 3, showers are likely to expand into parts of Kota, Bundi, Baran, Jhalawar, Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, Churu, Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, and Ajmer divisions. During this phase, regions including Tonk, Sawai Madhopur, Kota, Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, and the Shekhawati belt are anticipated to witness higher rainfall volumes compared to other areas.
Active Weather Phase from September 4 to 7
Meteorological projections suggest that between September 4 and 7, rainfall activity accompanied by thunder and lightning is likely to scale up across the Bharatpur, Kota, Jaipur, Ajmer, and Udaipur divisions. Several locations may experience light to moderate showers, while isolated pockets in the Kota division and neighboring districts could record moderate to heavy spells of rain. On September 4 and 5, the reach of these showers is expected to extend further into southern Rajasthan, bringing wet weather to Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Ajmer, Jaipur, Dausa, Alwar, Bharatpur, and the Kota division. Favorable local conditions could even lead to sudden heavy downpours in select spots.
Monsoon Remains Sluggish in Western Rajasthan
In contrast, monsoon conditions are expected to stay relatively weak across western Rajasthan for the time being. Most parts of the Jodhpur and Bikaner divisions will likely experience predominantly dry weather over the coming days. Nevertheless, isolated patches within the Bikaner division and the Shekhawati region could witness light to moderate rain between September 4 and 6. Major parts of Jaisalmer, Barmer, Balotra, Jalore, Sirohi, Sanchore, Phalodi, Jodhpur, and Pali still lack strong indicators for widespread rainfall. While localized showers cannot be ruled out, immediate relief from rainfall deficits in western Rajasthan remains unlikely.
Active Monsoon Trough and Western Disturbance
At present, the monsoon axis is actively stretching from Amritsar, Chandigarh, Meerut, and Gorakhpur all the way to the low-pressure system lingering near Gangetic West Bengal. Additionally, a western disturbance persists as a cyclonic circulation over northern Pakistan and the adjoining Jammu division at an altitude of 5.8 kilometers. The synergy of these weather systems is expected to drive the upcoming spells of rain across Rajasthan during the first week of September, bringing much-needed respite from the humid spell.
