Amid evolving diplomatic dynamics in South Asia, Professor Dr. Swaran Singh of the Institute of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University has delivered a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh. According to his assessment, there is a greater than 50 percent probability that the newly appointed Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Tarique Rahman, will undertake an official visit to India on the 20th and 21st to engage in direct bilateral discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Professor Singh emphasized that both nations have virtually no viable alternative other than repairing and strengthening their diplomatic alignment, though achieving this will require careful political restraint, particularly regarding the status of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Following democratic elections across South Asia, it has been a long-standing diplomatic convention for newly elected heads of government to select India as their first overseas destination, a pattern historically mirrored by Bangladesh. However, the political turmoil of 2024 shifted these dynamics when India granted shelter to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after her resignation. This decision sparked political discontent among several Bangladeshi factions, with groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party actively capitalizing on the issue. Following the transition and the assumption of the prime ministership by Tarique Rahman, expectations have emerged that an elected civilian administration can systematically restore bilateral stability.
The Sheikh Hasina Extradition Demand and Political Sensitivity
Upon assuming office, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman publicly committed to guiding foreign policy based on national public interest while maintaining a balanced approach toward international partners. Acknowledging these signals, India dispatched an official representative to attend his swearing-in ceremony, which was subsequently followed by formal interactions with the Indian High Commissioner. New Delhi has already extended two separate invitations to Prime Minister Rahman: one for bilateral talks and another to participate in the BRICS summit in his capacity as the chair of BIMSTEC.
Addressing the core points of friction, experts point out that the extradition of Sheikh Hasina remains a prominent demand from Bangladeshi political circles. Pending the resolution of extradition procedures, Bangladeshi authorities desire assurances that Sheikh Hasina's presence in India will not involve statements or activities capable of inciting public anger or domestic instability within Bangladesh. Significantly, Sheikh Hasina recently indicated during discussions that she intends to return to Bangladesh by December. Regional analysts view this potential return as a positive diplomatic development that could relieve significant pressure on India and open constructive avenues for official dialogue.
Geographic Realities and Economic Interdependence
Professor Swaran Singh highlighted that maintaining robust relations with India is not merely an option for Bangladesh, but a fundamental geographic and economic necessity. Bangladesh shares 100 percent of its land border with India, making comprehensive cross-border cooperation essential for Dhaka's trade logistics, regional connectivity, and broader economic resilience. During Sheikh Hasina's 15-year tenure, strong bilateral cooperation and warm personal equations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi helped transform Bangladesh into a recognized model of economic growth within South Asia.
While economic partnership with India has historically yielded significant development gains for Bangladesh, political analysts acknowledge that parties such as the BNP and NCP have historically exhibited a political tilt toward China. These domestic political realities place certain constraints on Prime Minister Rahman. Nevertheless, a successful visit to New Delhi could mark the beginning of a pragmatic new chapter in bilateral relations.
Water Diplomacy: Teesta Disputes and the 30-Year Ganges Treaty
Water resources remain among the most vital bilateral subjects between the two neighbors. While a formal consensus on the Teesta River water-sharing agreement has eluded negotiators for years, another major water management milestone is fast approaching. The landmark Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, signed in 1996 for a duration of 30 years, completes its 29th year this year. With the treaty nearing expiration, both governments will soon need to initiate structured negotiations regarding its renewal and future operational terms.
The Two-Year Interim Governance Under Dr. Muhammad Yunus
The political landscape in Bangladesh underwent significant changes during the two-year tenure of the interim administration led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus as Chief Advisor. Tasked primarily with restoring law and order and conducting national elections, Dr. Yunus's administration shifted toward broader political ambitions, attempting to reorient historical narratives, actively engaging with Pakistan, and deepening ties with China.
Undoing the diplomatic friction generated during those two years will require time and deliberate effort. Factions within the BNP continue to favor closer ties with Beijing or Islamabad over New Delhi. However, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's reiterated pledge to pursue a balanced foreign policy and rebuild trust with India signals a practical approach. If his proposed visit on the 20th and 21st takes place, it will represent a crucial step toward restoring long-term strategic and economic stability in South Asia.
