Recent data regarding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has cast serious doubt on claims made by the US administration. Since tensions escalated between the US and Iran, the vital waterway has faced significant blockades. While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly maintained that America maintains full control over Hormuz, supply figures tell a starkly different story and raise major questions over these assertions.
Energy Secretary Claims Conflict With Tracking Data
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright asserted that roughly 9 million barrels of oil are moving through Hormuz each day. However, data compiled by companies tracking the movement of oil tankers paints a significantly different picture. According to their figures, only about 5 million barrels are transiting through the route daily, with a realistic maximum capacity of perhaps 7 million barrels.
White House Statements Meet Market Skepticism
US President Donald Trump has persistently claimed that the waterway remains open and oil is moving without hindrance. Speaking at the White House, he stated that the US exercises complete control over the area and that millions of barrels are being extracted weekly. Trump added that oil prices are declining and will drop further if the US refrains from major actions. Nevertheless, oil market experts remain deeply skeptical of these claims.
Kpler Analyst Disputes Official Figures
Matt Smith, an expert at tanker tracking firm Kpler, noted that the 9 million barrel figure does not align with actual observations. In a report published by Politico, he suggested that the figures appear to lack a solid factual basis. He added that Iran currently holds the most leverage in Hormuz, with the majority of tankers traversing the route passing through Iranian-controlled waters.
US Defends Administration Data Accuracy
The US maintains that its intelligence provides the true picture. In an interview with Fox News, Chris Wright argued that private companies fail to fully capture the volume of oil exiting Hormuz. He claimed that certain tankers are crossing the strait covertly and with their transponders disabled, making government data more accurate than private estimates. The Department of Energy also corroborated that numerous vessels are switching off transponders to evade tracking.
Pre-Conflict Volumes Versus Current Traffic
Prior to the conflict, Hormuz stood as one of the world's premier energy corridors, facilitating the daily transit of approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil. Beyond oil, the route delivered natural gas, fertilizers, aluminum, and helium to global markets. While roughly 140 ships used to cross daily before the war, the situation has transformed entirely. According to Kpler records, only 3 ships traversed the strait on a recent Sunday, while a mere 95 vessels crossed the passage throughout the preceding week.
Challenges in Tracking Maritime Oil Movements
Assessing actual oil movements has grown exceedingly difficult under current conditions. Numerous ships deactivate their location-transmitting transponders, while satellite surveillance is restricted in certain zones. Furthermore, the US military has been moving select tankers with extreme secrecy. Despite these hurdles, tracking firms like Kpler have adapted their monitoring systems over recent months, though the rise in dark transit vessels hiding their activities continues to complicate accurate assessment.
Impact on Global Energy Prices
Any prolonged disruption in oil supplies through Hormuz carries direct global economic implications. Rising crude costs translate directly to higher prices for petrol, diesel, logistics, and everyday goods. Notably, despite official US assertions, global benchmark crude prices surged to approximately USD 90 per barrel. Concurrently, average petrol prices in the US climbed to roughly USD 4.067 per gallon, marking a record high for this time of year.
