The diplomatic currents between India and Bangladesh have hit a notable roadblock, driven primarily by shifting political calculations inside Dhaka. Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Veena Sikri has pointed out that the administration led by Prime Tarique Rahman is gripped by severe anxiety regarding the stated return of Sheikh Hasina to the country by December. According to her assessments, the expanding grassroots popularity of the Awami League is the fundamental driver behind Dhaka maintaining a deliberate distance from New Delhi and leaving Indian invitations unanswered for half a year.
Elaborating on the timeline of these diplomatic overtures, the former diplomat noted that Prime Tarique Rahman was extended an invitation to visit India exactly six months prior, in February 2026, coinciding with his swearing-in as prime minister. She observed that this appeared to be the inaugural invitation dispatched by the Indian government following his assumption of office, yet New Delhi has spent the ensuing six months awaiting a formal response. Furthermore, an additional invitation was extended a few weeks ago inviting him to participate in the BRICS Summit in his capacity as the BIMSTEC Chair.
Highlighting past political stances, Sikri contrasted Rahman's previous rhetoric with his current administrative posture. She recalled that during the tenure of Muhammad Yunus, when discussions arose regarding banning the Awami League, Rahman had publicly maintained that his camp did not endorse placing bans on any political organization. At the time, he argued that parties should remain active and face the electorate, noting that citizens would simply withhold their votes if displeased. She pointed out that while residing in London, Rahman routinely addressed political gatherings via video link, launching relentless verbal attacks against the administration of the day, yet Sheikh Hasina never imposed any restrictions upon him.
The former high commissioner emphasized that the moment Rahman stepped into the prime ministerial office, his approach shifted dramatically, utilizing Sheikh Hasina as a convenient pretense to avoid scheduling a visit to India. Initial diplomatic expectations had pointed toward a potential visit by Rahman around August 20 to 22. However, these plans hit a wall following a sudden press conference held by Sheikh Hasina on August 5, which transformed her presence into a manufactured bilateral friction point. Extradition proceedings remain strictly legal matters requiring extended procedural time, yet the current administration appears unnerved.
Sikri concluded that the panic in Dhaka stems directly from Hasina's declaration that she will return to her homeland by December. The current government is acutely aware that the Awami League retains a formidable support base and that public backing for the party continues to climb with each passing day, leaving the ruling leadership deeply unsettled by the prospect of political competition.
