The Taiwan Dollar (TWD) remains under persistent pressure, with the USD/TWD exchange rate consistently holding above the 32 level. According to analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong of OCBC Bank, this weakness is not fundamentally driven but is instead a direct result of significant foreign equity selling and strong demand for the US Dollar (USD) related to dividend payments and remittances. Authorities in Taiwan are now actively encouraging the faster execution of large USD sell orders to mobilize natural liquidity in the market. Furthermore, aggressive USD selling by exporters, coupled with direct guidance from the CBC, is expected to mitigate the risk of a disorderly rally in the USD/TWD pair.
Central Bank Strategy and Market Oversight
Officials from the CBC have characterized the recent weakness in the foreign exchange market as primarily driven by USD strength. However, they have also identified external factors such as portfolio flows and the elevated valuation of Taiwan equities as significant contributors to the pressure on the TWD. Market reports indicate that the CBC has instructed local financial institutions to ensure that large USD sell orders are processed on the same day they are received, rather than allowing these transactions to be delayed or staggered. By accelerating the flow of natural USD supply into the market, authorities hope to effectively tame the ongoing depreciation pressure on the local currency.
Technical Indicators and Resistance Levels
Bullish momentum remains evident on the daily chart, although the RSI has climbed into overbought territory. While upside risks persist, the possibility of a snapback in the trend cannot be entirely ruled out. Resistance is currently noted at 32.22, which represents the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 high to the low, with secondary resistance zones at 32.50 and 32.60. Conversely, immediate support is established at 31.95, while the 21 DMA sits at 31.76, providing a critical floor for the currency pair.
Short-Term Outlook
In the near term, the TWD may remain vulnerable if foreign equity outflows continue and sentiment toward the US Dollar remains firm ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. Nevertheless, the combination of exporter-driven USD selling and the CBC's proactive guidance to smoothen transaction execution should help reduce the risk of a disorderly surge in the USD/TWD pair. These policy interventions serve as a stabilizer, helping the market navigate the broader volatility driven by global monetary policy expectations and geopolitical factors.
