Rain has slowed down considerably across Rajasthan after an encouraging start to the monsoon season, with cloud cover thinning out over most districts in the past few days. The latest assessment from the meteorological department suggests that a large part of the state will stay largely dry over the coming days, though a few districts in eastern Rajasthan could see scattered showers while western Rajasthan braces for strong, dust laden winds. Weather scientists have been quick to clarify that this is only a temporary pause in the monsoon and not a sign of it withdrawing from the state. A fresh weather system is expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal on the night of July 15, and its effect should start showing in Rajasthan from July 16, when rainfall activity is likely to pick up again.
Meanwhile, humidity is set to make life uncomfortable in many parts of the state even without much rain, since moisture trapped in the air keeps the heat feeling heavier. In western Rajasthan, the combination of strong sunshine and hot winds is expected to persist. According to the department, the monsoon trough active at sea level currently runs through Sriganganagar, Hisar, Moradabad, Gorakhpur, Muzaffarpur and Balurghat, extending further in an east southeast direction all the way to Manipur. Alongside this, a western disturbance is active as a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and the surrounding region at a height of 3.1 kilometres above sea level, and a trough is also present in the mid troposphere at a height of 5.8 kilometres, both of which are shaping the current weather pattern over Rajasthan and explain why rain has largely dried up despite the lingering moisture in the air.
Dry Spell And Dusty Winds Forecast For Western Rajasthan
The Jaipur Meteorological Centre says most parts of the Jodhpur and Bikaner divisions will remain dry for the entire coming week. Districts including Jodhpur, Bikaner, Jaisalmer and Phalodi are unlikely to see any significant rain in the near term. Instead of relief, residents in these areas should brace for dusty winds blowing at speeds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour over the next two to three days. Phalodi, Jaisalmer and the areas around them will also continue to feel intense daytime heat, which could make it difficult for people to step outdoors during peak hours.
Light Rain Expected In Parts Of Eastern Rajasthan
Most districts of eastern Rajasthan are also forecast to stay mainly dry for the next five to six days. Even so, some areas in Alwar, Dausa, Bharatpur, Dholpur, Tonk, Udaipur, Nagaur, Shahpura, Phalodi and Jaisalmer could receive light rain or drizzle. Parts of the Udaipur division are expected to see an increase in rainfall activity starting July 16 and 17. The Jhunjhunu and Pilani region also has a chance of light to moderate rain accompanied by thunder, which could offer some relief from the heat in these pockets.
Rain Recorded In North Eastern Districts On Sunday Night
Weather over the northern and north eastern parts of Rajasthan turned suddenly on Sunday night. Rain accompanied by thunder and lightning was recorded in Mahajan, Arjunsar, Manaparsar, Chanderi Chhoti and the surrounding rural pockets of the Bikaner, Hanumangarh and Churu belt. The Jhunjhunu, Pilani, Bahal, Rajgarh and Malsisar areas also continue to have a chance of light to moderate rain with thunder. Cloud activity was also observed around the border areas of Tanot and Ghotaru, indicating that even the region close to the western frontier is seeing early signs of change in the weather pattern.
Temperature And Conditions In Jaipur And Other Major Cities
In the state capital Jaipur, the maximum temperature on July 14 is expected to touch 36 degrees Celsius while the minimum is likely to settle at 29 degrees Celsius. Clouds will keep moving across the sky through the day and light showers cannot be ruled out in some pockets. Alwar and Bharatpur will feel higher humidity, while Kota, Bundi and Jhalawar have a chance of light rain with thunder. Ajmer and Tonk, on the other hand, are expected to remain largely dry with little chance of rainfall for now.
Monsoon Set To Regain Strength From July 16
The Jaipur Meteorological Centre says a new weather system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal from the night of July 15. Once its effect kicks in, the monsoon is expected to become active again over Rajasthan from July 16, with a noticeable rise in rainfall activity particularly in the eastern and southern districts. Until then, people may have to deal with a mix of heat and humidity, but conditions are expected to turn more comfortable once the fresh system takes hold. Weather scientists have described the current phase as a temporary lull in the monsoon rather than its departure, raising hopes that rainfall across the state will pick up pace again soon.
