Just days after reports suggested that falling freight costs had made Russian oil and gas even cheaper for India to import, Washington is preparing a move that could upend that arrangement entirely. The United States is now weighing a flat 100 percent tariff on countries that continue buying oil and gas from Russia, and India sits right at the top of that list alongside China, the world's two biggest buyers of Russian crude.
That backdrop matters because it had signalled a genuine easing of costs for Indian refiners buying Russian barrels, at a time when New Delhi has consistently defended its right to source energy from wherever suits its interests best. A blanket 100 percent tariff threat now complicates that calculus considerably, since it comes bundled with the same trade talks that were supposed to bring the two countries closer, not push them further apart.
A Two-Track US Strategy
Even as US officials negotiate a trade deal with India and insist it could be finalised soon, Washington is simultaneously laying the groundwork to slap a fresh tariff on the very same partner. That contradiction, talking trade on one hand while threatening penalties on the other, has become something of a pattern in how the US has approached tariff diplomacy this time around.
Five Nations in the Crosshairs, Europe Spared
The tariff plan currently has five countries in its sights, all of them still importing crude oil from Russia. Notably, European nations have been carved out of the proposal entirely, even though several of them continue to buy Russian natural gas. Under the plan, the tariff would apply strictly to countries buying Russian crude oil, which is why gas-importing European nations fall outside its scope. In effect, the measure is designed to squarely target five countries, India and China chief among them.
60 Senators Back a New Bill
Sixty US senators have already signalled agreement that Russia's oil revenues need to be choked off, and tariffs are once again being positioned as the sharpest tool for the job. Since 2022, India and China have emerged as the largest buyers of Russian oil, largely because Western sanctions pushed other markets away while Russia kept offering both countries crude at discounted prices. The proposed US bill states that, besides India and China, three more countries that buy the most oil from Russia would face a 100 percent tariff. That said, the bill still needs approval from the US Congress before it becomes binding, so nothing is final yet.
Oil Draws a Tariff, Gas Gets a Pass
Under the bill's terms, European countries importing Russian natural gas would be exempted from the tariff, while countries buying Russian crude oil would bear the brunt of it. The underlying goal is to cut off Russia's income at the source. Since the Ukraine war began, India and China have become the two largest buyers of Russian oil, which is precisely why any such tariff would hit them the hardest.
A Double Bind for India
This latest US tariff push could land India in a bind on two fronts at once. If the 100 percent tariff actually goes into effect, it would directly hurt Indian exports headed to the US. On the other hand, if India cuts back on Russian oil purchases under that pressure, it could strain the country's fuel supply given the ongoing tensions linked to Iran, since sourcing crude from alternative markets would likely prove far costlier. India currently sources more than 50 percent of its oil needs from Russia, a share far higher than Pakistan's dependence on Russian crude.
Why Pakistan Gets a Pass
What stands out most in this entire episode is that Pakistan has been fully exempted from the proposed tariff. While India meets over half its oil requirement through Russian imports, Pakistan's reliance on Russian oil is nowhere near as high, which appears to be the reasoning behind keeping it outside the tariff's reach.
India's Foreign Ministry Responds
Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said the issue of the proposed 100 percent tariff is being closely watched. He said the government is fully aware of this development and is monitoring the situation. Jaiswal added that India imports oil from several countries around the world to meet its energy needs, Russia included, and that India will put forward its position firmly on this matter.
