October has commenced with distinct weather patterns across the subcontinent, creating a sharp contrast between dry plains and cloud-covered coasts. While the monsoon withdrawal is gathering pace across northwest India, several states across the eastern, northeastern, and southern belts continue to receive steady precipitation. Higher Himalayan elevations have simultaneously logged light snowfall, setting the tone for an approaching seasonal shift. The withdrawal line is firmly moving past Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana, even as an active weather phase is poised to linger over regions like Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Maharashtra, and Kerala for the coming six days.
Northwest Plains Dry Out as Himalayan Heights Receive Snow
According to official meteorological assessments, the southwest monsoon will complete its retreat from Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and the remaining pockets of Uttar Pradesh over the next two to three days. Conversely, conditions are not yet ripe for its withdrawal from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh. Higher Himalayan tracts are experiencing winter-like spells. Higher altitudes of Uttarakhand, especially in parts around Chamoli and Hemkund Sahib, could witness a light blanket of snow or isolated flurries on October 1. Higher reaches of Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, and Kullu have already recorded light snowfall, reducing local temperatures.
Rain Prospects Across Northern Hills and Central States
Over the next six days, isolated to scattered spells are forecast across select hill and central territories. Between October 5 and October 6, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad could witness scattered precipitation. Uttarakhand is likely to register isolated showers during October 1 to 2, with a similar phase recurring between October 5 and 6. Moving into central India, East Madhya Pradesh is slated for rain spells from October 1 to 3, while Vidarbha is expected to see isolated activity on October 5 and 6. In Chhattisgarh, scattered precipitation is projected to persist from October 2 through October 6.
Eastern Plains and Northeastern Hills on Alert
Moisture-rich easterly winds are keeping the eastern and northeastern parts of the country unsettled. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim are forecast to record isolated rainfall from October 1 to 6. Jharkhand may receive rain on October 1 and 2, while Bihar is expected to see wet conditions between October 3 and 6. Coastal Odisha faces heightened instability on October 1, with isolated thunderstorms, lightning, and surface wind speeds reaching 30 to 40 kmph, occasionally gusting up to 50 kmph.
Across the northeast, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are likely to experience isolated rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning between October 1 and 6. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura will observe identical weather from October 1 through 6. Heavy downpours are also in store for specific pockets: Arunachal Pradesh is on alert for isolated heavy rainfall between October 3 and 4, whereas Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura are projected to see heavy spells on October 1.
Active Precipitation Across Western and Southern Belts
In western India, Konkan and Goa along with Madhya Maharashtra will witness isolated to scattered showers from October 1 to 6, while Gujarat region, Saurashtra, and Kutch could see light rain on October 1. Southern peninsular territories will remain significantly active throughout the forecast window. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Lakshadweep, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal are slated for scattered rain from October 1 to 6. Kerala and Coastal Karnataka will experience showers from October 3 to 6, South Interior Karnataka from October 2 to 6, and Telangana on October 2 and 3.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall will impact Kerala and Mahe from October 1 to 6, Coastal Karnataka on October 1 and 2, and South Interior Karnataka on October 1. Severe elements will also accompany these systems. Coastal Karnataka may witness thunderstorms and lightning strikes on October 1, while Kerala and Mahe are prone to lightning and storm bursts on October 3 and 4. Isolated heavy downpours are expected on October 1 in Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, alongside recurring heavy showers in Kerala and Mahe on October 1, 2, and 4.
