The southwest monsoon is steadily entering its concluding phase across India, with rain-bearing currents pulling back rapidly from extensive stretches of the northern and western plains. Favorable atmospheric conditions indicate that over the next two to three days, the monsoon will completely withdraw from the remaining pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Simultaneously, the entire geographical expanse of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand will see a complete exit of the monsoon system. Initial withdrawal signals have also begun appearing across parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra. However, the retreat from northern India does not translate into an immediate national dry spell, as diverse regional weather systems continue to trigger thunderstorms, lightning, gusty surface winds, and intense downpours across the southern peninsula and northeastern states.
Dual Atmospheric Systems Active Across North India
The weather dynamics over northern India are currently governed by two distinct circulation features interacting at different altitudes. The first system is centered over northern Haryana and adjacent territories, where a western disturbance persists as an active cyclonic circulation. This meteorological feature spans an altitude between 1.5 and 5.8 kilometers above sea level, embedded within a trough moving through the mid-latitude westerlies. Concurrently, a second upper air cyclonic circulation is stationed over south-eastern Uttar Pradesh and contiguous Bihar at an altitude of approximately 3.1 kilometers above sea level. The combined presence of these systems continues to induce localized cloud development and scattered spells of precipitation across isolated parts of the northern plains.
Dry Conditions and Clear Skies Across Delhi NCR
For residents across Delhi and the broader National Capital Region, October 1 will bring predominantly dry and settled weather conditions. The regional sky is expected to remain largely clear with ample sunshine throughout the day. The official withdrawal line of the southwest monsoon has advanced past the south-western and western extremities of Delhi, effectively reducing convective rainfall potential. Although the dual cyclonic disturbances over northern Haryana and the south-eastern Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border continue to influence regional air currents, no rain has been forecast for Delhi NCR on October 1. As the withdrawal process consolidates over the coming days, the atmosphere across the capital region will turn progressively drier.
Scattered Showers Forecast for Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand
The retreat of the southwest monsoon is progressing swiftly across Uttar Pradesh, and conditions are projected to turn conducive for its complete withdrawal from remaining parts of the state within two to three days. Nevertheless, on September 30, isolated pockets of eastern Uttar Pradesh may experience spells of light to moderate rainfall. This localized rain is directly linked to the upper air cyclonic circulation positioned over south-eastern Uttar Pradesh and neighbouring Bihar at a height of 3.1 kilometers. Consequently, while western Uttar Pradesh moves rapidly into a completely dry regime, eastern districts will witness intermittent cloud cover and light showers before the monsoon fully parts.
In the mountainous territory of Uttarakhand, noticeable weather variations will continue over the next few days. Light to moderate rain is expected at several locations from September 30 through October 2. Following a brief pause, another spell of isolated rainfall is anticipated across the state on October 5 and 6. These intermittent mountain showers will maintain cooler temperatures along higher elevations even as the broader monsoon retreat stays on track across the northern hill states.
Thunderstorms and High Winds Expected in Bihar and Jharkhand
Even though the preliminary withdrawal of the monsoon is setting in across eastern India, weather activity across Bihar and Jharkhand is far from quiet. Bihar is slated to receive scattered rainfall on September 30, with further intermittent precipitation expected between October 3 and October 6 across various districts. The prevailing upper air cyclonic circulation over south-eastern Uttar Pradesh and neighbouring Bihar is keeping the local atmosphere unstable. Furthermore, from October 4 to October 6, Bihar is projected to witness thunderstorms, frequent lightning, and gusty winds reaching speeds of 30 to 40 kilometers per hour, creating squall-like conditions across several zones despite the ongoing monsoon departure.
In Jharkhand, light to moderate rainfall is forecast at isolated to scattered locations between September 30 and October 2. Atmospheric parameters are becoming supportive for the retreat of the monsoon from portions of the state over the next two to three days. Subsequently, rainfall frequency and spatial coverage across Jharkhand are expected to undergo a gradual and persistent decrease, ushering in drier autumnal conditions.
Northeast Braces for Well-Marked Low Pressure System
Meteorological activity remains exceptionally pronounced across northeastern India due to a potent tropical weather disturbance. A well-marked low pressure area is currently active over northern Myanmar and its adjoining areas of south-eastern Bangladesh, Mizoram, and the north-eastern Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic circulation associated with this substantial low pressure system reaches up to 7.6 kilometers above sea level.
According to weather projections, this system will chart a north-north-westward track across Mizoram, Tripura, and neighbouring south-eastern Bangladesh over the next 12 hours. As it makes passage over land, it is expected to weaken progressively into a standard low pressure zone. Under its pervasive atmospheric grip, widespread rainfall will persist across northeastern states, with Arunachal Pradesh placed on alert for heavy downpours at isolated locations on October 3 and 4.
Intense Downpours to Batter Southern States
While northern regions transition toward seasonal dryness, southern India is experiencing the brunt of widespread convective activity. Substantial rainfall spells are forecast to persist over multiple sectors of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu over the coming days. On October 1, heavy rainfall is likely to strike isolated spots across Kerala and Mahe, South Interior Karnataka, as well as Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal. These localized heavy downpours are expected to be accompanied by thunderstorm activity, vivid lightning, and sharp wind gusts.
Across Kerala and Mahe, scattered to widespread rainfall will continue unabated from October 1 through October 6. In addition, coastal Karnataka will experience active rainy conditions on October 1 and 2, keeping coastal waterways elevated and demanding vigilance from transport and civic operations across the southern peninsula.
