Official meteorological statistics for the four-month southwest monsoon across India reveal a sharp shortfall in seasonal precipitation. Between June and September, the country received only 87.4 percent of its Long Period Average rainfall, registering the fourth driest monsoon period observed since 2001. A primary factor driving this extensive seasonal deficit was the emergence of an El Nino pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean during June, which subsequently gathered strength as the summer progressed.
Pacific Warming and Seasonal Rain Projections
Atmospheric assessments indicate that the prevailing El Nino remains powerful and is anticipated to persist through March 2027. Cumulative rainfall across India reached 759.4 millimeters during the season, falling short of the typical 868.6 millimeter benchmark. This deficit represents a 13 percent drop below normal levels. Earlier seasonal projections issued on April 13 had estimated rainfall at 92 percent of the Long Period Average, which was later revised on May 29 to 90 percent with a four percent model margin of error.
Scientifically, El Nino represents one of three distinct phases within the broader climate phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It exerts a notable warming influence on global temperatures and is historically connected with suppressed monsoon activity across India. Conversely, the alternate La Nina phase typically brings cooling effects, while the system can also rest in a neutral phase.
Monthly Breakdown of Seasonal Moisture
Rainfall deficits varied drastically across the calendar months. June witnessed the sharpest scarcity of the season, recording a deficit of 35.4 percent. The deficit narrowed somewhat in August to 16.3 percent and eased further to 7.6 percent by September. July stood out as the sole month with above-average precipitation, yielding an increase of one percent above benchmark figures.
Low-Pressure Systems Prevented Steeper Deficits
Director General of Meteorology Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the country would have experienced an even steeper shortfall without the intervention of active low-pressure systems. He pointed out that 14 individual low-pressure formations developed throughout the season, remaining functionally active across 77 days compared to the historical normal of 57 days.
Monsoon Withdrawal Across Northern and Western Belts
The retreating phase of the monsoon has already commenced across multiple territories. According to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the seasonal weather system has entirely withdrawn from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and the complete territory of Delhi. Significant tracts within Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat have similarly experienced the withdrawal of monsoon currents.
