Jharkhand's politics has turned into a riddle that few seem able to read right now. Ever since the Rajya Sabha results came out, the picture has stayed blurry. The second-rung leaders of the four ruling India bloc parties, Congress, RJD, CPI(ML) and JMM, are saying plenty, but the one man on whom the whole alliance rests has gone quiet. JMM chief and Chief Minister Hemant Soren has not uttered a word about the defeat of the Congress candidate in the Rajya Sabha election, and it is exactly this silence that is unsettling everyone.
The allies simply cannot digest the loss. Congress's state-level leaders are pinning the blame on RJD and the Left. From the other side, JMM's national general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya says Hemant Soren's government now rests on the support of just 50 MLAs instead of 56. The message is clear: like Congress, the JMM too believes that the 6 MLAs from RJD and the Left who did not vote for the India bloc candidate are, in effect, no longer part of the coalition. Through all of this, Soren's silence has left everyone stunned.
Could the Shape of the Government Change?
It is now slowly becoming clear that the form of the government in Jharkhand could change. The friction that began inside the India bloc during the Bihar assembly election has now reached the brink of a breakup. The striking part is that the alliance parties have only themselves to blame for this state of affairs. Even while sitting together, they are at each other's throats, and the BJP is enjoying the show from the sidelines.
The roots of this quarrel run deep. In Bihar, RJD and Congress gave the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha little importance. In return, JMM played its own part in adding to Congress's troubles in Assam. The Rajya Sabha election finished off whatever was left. By ensuring the win of NDA-backed independent candidate Parimal Nathwani, the India bloc parties made it plain that their unity stretches only as far as running the government, and that everyone is free to act on their own on every other decision.
The Numbers Game and a Tangled Count
The JMM-led India alliance runs the government in Jharkhand. With the largest number of seats, Hemant Soren sits at its head. JMM has 34 MLAs. Add to that 16 from Congress, 4 from RJD and 2 from the Left parties standing behind Soren, and the India bloc adds up to 56 MLAs in total. Winning a single Rajya Sabha seat required the votes of 28 MLAs. In this 81-seat assembly, if the 56 MLAs had stayed together, both seats were sure to go to the India bloc.
But things played out differently. JMM candidate Baidyanath Ram got 30 votes, while the Mahagathbandhan-backed Congress candidate managed only 20. Despite a mock polling exercise held before voting, 3 of the alliance's votes were rejected. The big question is this: when the JMM needed only 28 votes, why and how did it end up with 30, and why did Congress stall at just 20? Clearly, no unity was left in the India bloc. Independent candidate Nathwani was the direct beneficiary and won, while the Congress candidate lost despite having enough votes on paper.
The Blame Game Erupts
The moment the results were announced, an open brawl broke out inside the India bloc. Congress held the RJD and Left MLAs responsible. The RJD hit back by accusing Congress itself of being up for sale, sharpening the bitterness further. From the Left, CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya flatly rejected the Congress charge. Amid all this noise, the JMM has chosen to stay silent.
What is surprising is that even Congress is not questioning the JMM's role, although the arithmetic is plain. Once the JMM candidate ended up with 30 votes instead of 28, two votes were quietly shaved off Congress's share. That left Congress with just 26 votes instead of 28, which was enough to sink its candidate. Who sold out after that, and who held firm, is now a pointless debate.
A Win-Win for JMM and a Nudge from BJP
Congress will surely sit down and reflect on this defeat. The RJD and the Left have already adopted a sharp tone. The JMM's refusal to speak could provoke Congress even more. It will be interesting to watch whether Congress stays in the government after this humiliation and betrayal, or chooses the path of separation. For now, the JMM holds all the cards. The BJP, too, has already hinted at inviting Hemant to come over. Hemant's trip to Delhi right after the results says a great deal on its own. What he is cooking up there, and with whom, could surface very soon. The situation within the alliance is being engineered in such a way that the Congress high command itself decides to walk out.
Saryu Rai's Formula
Meanwhile, JDU's lone MLA Saryu Rai has once again advised Hemant Soren to form a government by dropping both the BJP and Congress. He has even suggested a formula for it. According to him, JMM's 34, the RJD and Left parties' 6, and JDU's 1 MLA together would comfortably make up the majority figure of 41, and Hemant could run the government on that basis if he wishes. He has offered this suggestion to Hemant before as well. That said, the JDU is part of the NDA both in Bihar and at the Centre. In the Rajya Sabha election, Saryu Rai himself had said he would vote for the NDA-backed candidate, so he must have done just that.
Why the Talk of Moving Closer to BJP
For now it is only a matter of speculation that Hemant could move closer to the BJP, and several reasons are being cited. The first is that he is entangled in several legal cases involving the CBI and the ED, and staying with the BJP could bring him relief. The second major reason being offered is that the way opposition MPs and MLAs are bowing before the BJP is a warning sign for the JMM as well.
