Atmospheric patterns across India are entering a major transitional phase as active rain bands recede from the northern plains and central heartland. The southwest monsoon is rapidly establishing its departure path across several territories, paving the way for drier weather in the northwest. However, while northern regions prepare for seasonal clearing, atmospheric moisture remains concentrated over the southern peninsula and the northeast, where intense precipitation is projected to continue over the coming days. Heavy showers are predicted across parts of the southern peninsula over the next 24 hours, with Kerala anticipated to experience exceptionally heavy falls.
Conditions Favorable for Monsoon Withdrawal in 13 States Over Next 48 Hours
Meteorological assessments confirm that conditions are supportive for the progressive withdrawal of the southwest monsoon across an extensive regional belt over the next two days. The withdrawal line is poised to travel across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, the remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. The retreat is also set to cover major swathes of Madhya Pradesh alongside the entire expanse of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Concurrently, parts of eastern and central India, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and select areas of Maharashtra, are on track to witness favorable withdrawal dynamics within this 48-hour window.
Monsoon Season Closes with 87.4 Percent of Long Period Average Rainfall
Data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the core June to September window shows that the country received 87.4 percent of its Long Period Average (LPA). While the conventional benchmark for normal seasonal precipitation stands at 868.6 mm, actual pan-India rainfall reached only 759.4 mm. The department highlighted that this seasonal turnout represents the fourth lowest cumulative rainfall volume recorded since 2001. Between 1 June and 30 September, national rainfall levels reflected an overall cumulative deficit of approximately 13 percent against historical averages.
Forecast Details for Northeastern and Eastern Regions Through Early October
Wet weather patterns will remain active across the northeastern frontier from 2 to 7 October, bringing recurrent rain spells to Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Across central and eastern pockets, rain is forecasted between 2 and 3 October in East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Bengal. Furthermore, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Odisha are likely to encounter thunderstorms, lightning strikes, and gusty winds blowing at 30 to 40 km/h during 2 to 3 October, with peak wind bursts reaching up to 50 km/h in isolated spots.
Orange Alert in Three Kerala Districts While Delhi Expects Clear Skies
Downpours across parts of Kerala on Thursday delivered much-needed respite from weeks of oppressive heat, though the intensity of incoming weather prompted an orange alert across Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, and Idukki districts. In addition, yellow alerts have been assigned to six neighboring districts across Kerala. In contrast, the national capital of Delhi is set to experience predominantly clear skies. Delhi's daytime maximum temperatures are projected to settle between 33°C and 35°C, while nighttime minimums will range from 21°C to 23°C, remaining slightly below seasonal norms in most areas alongside surface wind speeds touching 20 km/h.
